report

By Toyow Research Team

1 January 2026

Macro Market Report – December 2025

January 2026 marks a critical inflection point: while the stablecoin market saw its first contraction in over two years, the underlying macro liquidity tells a different story.

Despite a significant 29% correction in Bitcoin's price from its Q4 highs, the US M2 Money Supply continues to trend upward, creating a widening divergence between monetary debasement and digital asset pricing.

As we transition into the 'Industrial Phase' of the on-chain economy, this report explores why institutional RWA adoption remains the primary driver for long-term structural growth.

Executive Summary — Market Consolidation & Structural Shifts

The year began with a distinct 'risk reset.' Bitcoin corrected sharply to the $89,000 range, triggering a deleveraging event that flushed out over $1.9 billion in leveraged positions.

However, the data suggests capital is rotating rather than exiting. The tokenized Real-World Asset (RWA) market has surged past $30 billion, led by sovereign-grade instruments like tokenized U.S. Treasuries.

With the Federal Reserve holding rates at 3.5%–3.75%, the market focus is shifting toward utility. Infrastructure providers are now processing billions in volume at sub-cent costs, making fractionalized RWA trading the new standard for 2026.

Market Pulse Metrics

During late November and early December, the stablecoin market experienced a temporary contraction, with total market capitalization briefly declining into the $300–$305 billion range, marking the first month-over-month pullback in over 26 months following a broad deleveraging event.

At the same time, capital continued shifting into yield-bearing alternatives. The tokenized real-world asset (RWA) market is estimated at over $30 billion, depending on classification methodology, led primarily by tokenized U.S. Treasuries and the early expansion of on-chain private credit instruments.

The deleveraging that triggered this reset was severe. On November 21, the market saw approximately $1.9 billion in forced liquidations, with the majority of positions skewed toward the long side.

Macro & Demand Drivers

Global Liquidity: The "Silent" Expansion. While headlines focus on the Federal Reserve's recent pause, global M2 money supply is quietly expanding, driven primarily by coordinated liquidity injections from the PBoC and the European Central Bank (ECB).

The Treasury Link: A Sovereign Feedback Loop. One of the most underappreciated structural shifts is the growing role of regulated stablecoin issuers in U.S. short-term debt markets.

Monetary Policy Transmission: Stablecoins effectively extend the reach of US monetary policy into jurisdictions where dollar access is restricted.

Historically, global liquidity expansions precede crypto asset repricing by 3–6 months.
Monetary Policy Transmission
Debt Market Stabilization
Regulatory Symbiosis

Geopolitical Forces

Monetary Sovereignty: The dominance of USD-pegged stablecoins (99% market share) is effectively "dollarizing" emerging markets.

Protectionism: Renewed tariff threats from the US administration contributed to the risk-off sentiment in November, driving capital toward non-correlated, domestic real assets.

Regulatory Landscape — Clarity as Catalyst

The regulatory fog is lifting, replacing "gray zone" operations with clear, license-driven frameworks.

United States: The GENIUS Act Era

Status: Signed July 2025. Mandate: Establishes a federal framework for fully backed stablecoins.

Outcome: Legitimatizes stablecoins as banking infrastructure. We expect major US banks to launch proprietary stablecoins or tokenize deposits in 2026.

Asset Layer: The "Safety" Anchor

Tokenized Treasuries: BlackRock’s BUIDL fund ($2.9B AUM) and Franklin Templeton’s FOBXX have proven that government debt can live on-chain.

Private Credit: Platforms such as Centrifuge are bringing private credit on-chain, representing early institutional adoption.

The "Yield Hierarchy"

Crypto = High Volatility / High Beta.

Treasuries = Low Volatility / Low Yield (Risk-Free).

Toyow RWAs = Moderate Volatility / High Yield (Alpha).

Glossary of Key Terms

Alpha / Beta

Beta refers to returns driven by overall market movements and broad asset volatility. Alpha refers to returns generated from asset-specific performance that is not directly correlated with broader market cycles.

Deleveraging

The forced reduction of leveraged positions through liquidations, typically occurring during periods of heightened market stress and volatility.

GENIUS Act

The *Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act*, signed in July 2025, which establishes a federal framework for payment stablecoins backed by high-quality reserves.

Layer-2 (L2)

Scaling frameworks built on top of base blockchains (such as Ethereum) that enable faster transaction processing and significantly lower transaction costs.

M2 Money Supply

A broad measure of money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and near-money instruments, commonly used as an indicator of global liquidity conditions.

MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets)

The European Union’s comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, providing legal clarity for crypto markets across EU member states.

Real-World Assets (RWAs)

Physical or financial assets—such as real estate, commodities, or government securities—that are tokenized and represented on a blockchain.

Stablecoins

Digital assets designed to maintain price stability, typically pegged to a fiat currency, and used as settlement instruments within digital asset markets.

Tokenized Treasuries

Blockchain-based representations of short-term U.S. government debt instruments, enabling on-chain capital to access sovereign yields.

Data Sources & Reference Frameworks

This report draws on publicly available regulatory disclosures, institutional publications, and market data platforms commonly used by policymakers, financial institutions, and digital asset infrastructure providers.

Market Data & Analytics

Stablecoin market capitalization and volume metrics (CoinMarketCap)

Global liquidity indicators (Federal Reserve Economic Data – M2)

Real-world asset ecosystem data (RWA.xyz)

Institutional Reference Points

BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL)

Franklin Templeton OnChain U.S. Government Money Fund (FOBXX)

On-chain private credit infrastructure (Centrifuge)

Enjoy insights like these?

Subscribe to Toyow Research for monthly macro + RWA analysis. Our December 2025 report demonstrates the power of data-driven market timing in a consolidating cycle.

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Macro Market Report – December 2025

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Disclaimer:

This report has been prepared and issued by Toyow for publication globally. It synthesizes publicly available information from on-chain analytics platforms, regulatory publications, central bank communications, and institutional disclosures believed to be reliable as of the report’s data cut-off period. However, Toyow does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information contained herein.

Risk Warning: Crypto asset trading involves a high degree of risk. The crypto asset market is relatively new and unproven, and may not grow as expected. Currently, crypto assets see relatively small use in retail and commercial marketplaces compared to their use by speculators, contributing to price volatility that could adversely affect your investment. You should only participate in crypto asset trading if you are capable of evaluating the merits and risks of the investment and can bear the economic risk of losing your entire investment.

No Investment Advice: Nothing in this report constitutes or should be considered as an offer by Toyow and/or its affiliates to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy, bitcoin or other crypto assets or derivatives. This report is provided for information and research purposes only and should not be construed or presented as an offer or solicitation for any investment. The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or any offering document and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or solicit an offer to invest in any jurisdiction.

Forward-Looking Statements: Readers are cautioned that any forward-looking statements contained herein are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors.

Not Professional Advice: The information contained herein should not be considered as economic, legal, tax, or other professional advice. Users are cautioned against basing investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content of this report. Always consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.

Report15 January 2026

Real-World Asset (RWA) Tokenization

Blog14 December 2025

The Alpha Pivot: Why Capital is Migrating from "Safety" to "Growth" in 2026

Blog10 April 2025

Tokenized fractional ownership: The Internet's Next Investment Model

Executive Summary — Market Consolidation & Structural Shifts

The year began with a distinct 'risk reset.' Bitcoin corrected sharply to the $89,000 range, triggering a deleveraging event that flushed out over $1.9 billion in leveraged positions.

Market Pulse Metrics

The deleveraging that triggered this reset was severe. On November 21, the market saw approximately $1.9 billion in forced liquidations, with the majority of positions skewed toward the long side.

Macro & Demand Drivers

The Treasury Link: A Sovereign Feedback Loop. One of the most underappreciated structural shifts is the growing role of regulated stablecoin issuers in U.S. short-term debt markets.

Monetary Policy Transmission: Stablecoins effectively extend the reach of US monetary policy into jurisdictions where dollar access is restricted.

Historically, global liquidity expansions precede crypto asset repricing by 3–6 months.

Monetary Policy Transmission

Debt Market Stabilization

Regulatory Symbiosis

Geopolitical Forces

Monetary Sovereignty: The dominance of USD-pegged stablecoins (99% market share) is effectively "dollarizing" emerging markets.

Protectionism: Renewed tariff threats from the US administration contributed to the risk-off sentiment in November, driving capital toward non-correlated, domestic real assets.

Glossary of Key Terms

Alpha / Beta

Deleveraging

The forced reduction of leveraged positions through liquidations, typically occurring during periods of heightened market stress and volatility.

GENIUS Act

The *Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act*, signed in July 2025, which establishes a federal framework for payment stablecoins backed by high-quality reserves.

Layer-2 (L2)

Scaling frameworks built on top of base blockchains (such as Ethereum) that enable faster transaction processing and significantly lower transaction costs.

M2 Money Supply

A broad measure of money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and near-money instruments, commonly used as an indicator of global liquidity conditions.

MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets)

The European Union’s comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, providing legal clarity for crypto markets across EU member states.

Real-World Assets (RWAs)

Physical or financial assets—such as real estate, commodities, or government securities—that are tokenized and represented on a blockchain.

Stablecoins

Digital assets designed to maintain price stability, typically pegged to a fiat currency, and used as settlement instruments within digital asset markets.

Tokenized Treasuries

Blockchain-based representations of short-term U.S. government debt instruments, enabling on-chain capital to access sovereign yields.

Institutional Reference Points

BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL)

Franklin Templeton OnChain U.S. Government Money Fund (FOBXX)

On-chain private credit infrastructure (Centrifuge)

Enjoy insights like these?

Subscribe to Toyow Research for monthly macro + RWA analysis. Our December 2025 report demonstrates the power of data-driven market timing in a consolidating cycle.

Disclaimer:

Macro Market Report – December 2025

Executive Summary — Market Consolidation & Structural Shifts

Market Pulse Metrics

Macro & Demand Drivers

Geopolitical Forces

Regulatory Landscape — Clarity as Catalyst

United States: The GENIUS Act Era

Asset Layer: The "Safety" Anchor

The "Yield Hierarchy"

Glossary of Key Terms

Data Sources & Reference Frameworks

Market Data & Analytics

Institutional Reference Points

Report

Macro Market Report – December 2025

Disclaimer:

YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE

Real-World Asset (RWA) Tokenization

The Alpha Pivot: Why Capital is Migrating from "Safety" to "Growth" in 2026

Tokenized fractional ownership: The Internet's Next Investment Model

Macro Market Report – December 2025

Executive Summary — Market Consolidation & Structural Shifts

Market Pulse Metrics

Macro & Demand Drivers

Geopolitical Forces

Regulatory Landscape — Clarity as Catalyst

United States: The GENIUS Act Era

Asset Layer: The "Safety" Anchor

The "Yield Hierarchy"

Glossary of Key Terms

Data Sources & Reference Frameworks

Market Data & Analytics

Institutional Reference Points

Report

Macro Market Report – December 2025

Disclaimer:

YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE

Real-World Asset (RWA) Tokenization

The Alpha Pivot: Why Capital is Migrating from "Safety" to "Growth" in 2026

Tokenized fractional ownership: The Internet's Next Investment Model